When
battle-hardened Chadian troops overran a Boko Haram camp in northern
Nigeria last week, they wanted to press deep into territory controlled
by the Islamist group but Nigeria refused to let them.
Having
defeated al Qaeda in Mali two years ago, Chad's military believes it
could could finish off Boko Haram alone. It has notched up victories
that have pushed the Nigerian militants back from the Cameroonian
border.
But
with presidential elections this month, Nigeria is keen to press ahead
with its own military campaign against Boko Haram, aiming to push it out
of major towns before the March 28 ballot.
In
a country proud to be a major African power, it would be an
embarrassment to President Goodluck Jonathan as he seeks reelection for a
smaller nation to tackle Nigeria's security problems, diplomats say.
In
their forward base in the town of Gambaru on the Nigeria-Cameroon
border, Chadian soldiers displayed dozens of guns seized from Boko Haram
and a burnt-out armoured vehicle painted with black and white Arabic
script.
"We turned back because Nigeria did not authorise us to go any further," army spokesman Colonel Azem Bermandoa said.
Nigeria's
spokesman for operations in the northeast, Mike Omeri, said cooperation
between Chadian and Nigerian forces has brought some major military
successes and any issues would be resolved via existing command
structures.
But
the Chadians say there have been no joint operations between the two
forces. Chad's offer to join a Nigerian offensive to capture Baga, site
of one of Boko Haram's worst atrocities in January, was rebuffed,
Bermandoa said.
Officials
from Chad, Niger and Cameroon say lack of cooperation from Nigeria has
for months hampered efforts to put together a regional taskforce against
Boko Haram. Chad was compelled to take unilateral action in January,
under a deal that allows it to pursue terrorists into Nigeria, after
Boko Haram violence started to choke off imports to its economy.
With
Niger and Cameroon deploying thousands of troops on their borders,
blocking escape routes for Boko Haram, the tide may be turning. In what
Nigeria has branded a sign of desperation, the Islamist group has
carried out wave of suicide attacks and threatened to disrupt the
election.
Francois
Conradie, analyst with South African-based NKC Research, said that if
the current offensive can be sustained, Boko Haram could quickly be
driven out of the remaining towns it holds. It would, however, remain a
deadly rural guerrilla force.
“All of this is good news for stability and will probably be to Mr Jonathan’s electoral advantage,” he said.
OPPOSITION CRITICISES RELIANCE ON CHAD
Many
in Nigeria ask why it took so long to act. Boko Haram killed thousands
last year and kidnapped many more in its six-year campaign for an
Islamist emirate in Africa's largest oil producer.
Niger,
Cameroon and Chad say Nigeria neglected the uprising in its
economically backward northeast, an opposition stronghold. Borno state
is home to two percent of Nigeria's 170 million people.
But
in recent months, Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler who is
running as the presidential candidate for the opposition All
Progressives Congress (APC), has gained popularity with voters desperate
for tough policies both on corruption and Boko Haram.
Amid
pressure from the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP), Nigeria's
electoral commission announced a six week postponement to the Feb. 14
election, to allow the army to tackle the security situation in the
northeast so voting could go ahead there.
Ernst
Hogendoorn, Crisis Group's Africa deputy programme director, said the
government appeared to have engineered the delay in the hope the APC
would slip up or the military could boost Jonathan by defeating Boko
Haram.
"Boko
Haram has certainly suffered a strategic setback ... Clearly this
improves Goodluck Jonathan's chances somewhat," said Hogendoorn. "The
question is do any of these forces have the ability to maintain this
tempo, particularly the Chadians and to a lesser degree the Nigerians?"
With
Chad already squeezed by a slump in the price of oil, its main export,
the government says it can only sustain the offensive in Nigeria for a
short time, diplomats say.
Buhari,
however, has already criticised Jonathan for relying on Chad to push
back Boko Haram, saying his government would tackle the problem alone.
Many in the military and the government are keen to limit foreign
involvement on Nigerian soil, diplomats say.
When
Chadian forces last month entered the town of Dikwa, they were told to
leave by Nigeria's military, which said it was planning air strikes,
Bermondoa said.
After
Nigeria's army retook Baga last month, Army Chief Major General Kenneth
Minimah said his soldiers would recapture a handful of remaining towns
before the elections, listing Dikwa as one of them. “The war is almost
ended," he said.
TENSIONS HAMPER REGIONAL FORCE
Boko
Haram was long regarded by neighbouring countries as an internal
Nigerian problem, but attacks in Cameroon and Niger last year prompted
the regional response. Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Benin and Cameroon agreed
in May to join forces against the militants.
Since
then, however, distrust and misunderstandings have stymied preparations
for the force, due to take effect by the end of this month. Nigeria
initially sent low-level representatives to planning meetings, angering
its allies.
Cooperation
between Cameroon and Nigeria has been dogged by long-running border
tensions, while Niger accused Nigerian troops of cowardice.
"Nigeria
must get involved and honour its promise of providing between 2,500 and
3,000 to the multinational force," said Cameroon's defence spokesman
Colonel Didier Badjeck.
Cameroon
has stepped up its activities since July, when Boko Haram attacked
Kolotafa, the hometown of its deputy prime minister, killing dozens and
kidnapping his wife.
The government has boosted its security forces in northern Cameroon from 700 to around 7,000.
"We
have to do whatever it takes to make sure the sect does not occupy any
town in Cameroon," said Colonel Joseph Nouma, in charge of Operation
Alpha, the mission against Boko Haram.
However,
Nouma said he has orders not to enter Nigeria, and Cameroon has denied
Nigerian troops the right to pursue insurgents into Cameroon.
Along
its 400 km (250 miles) border with Nigeria, Cameroon has created 14 new
bases, with heavy artillery batteries. It has also deployed
surveillance drones, a senior intelligence officer said.
Another
senior Cameroon military figure said they were attempting to choke off
Boko Haram's revenues, including the trade in fuel with Cameroon, Chad
and Niger.
"All of this looks to be paying off," the officer said, with no incursions since mid-February.
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